Member of the reality-based community of progressive Massachusetts blogs
I’ve been a member of a local business networking group for a couple months now. One of the things I remember recently hearing from the real estate guy was that housing prices in the area are dropping like lead balloons.
Or like a real estate bubble bursting, perhaps?
waittilnextyr in comments mentioned one real estate guru in Lowell who buys at low cost and sells at peak. He sold a bunch of properties recently.
For some of us this means we might - just might - be able to afford to buy a home around here in the next couple of years. But what does this mean for the city’s economic plan? If all those expensive properties that have been bought up to create high-end condos suddenly sell at a loss for those developers, I think that’s going to have an impact on all of us.
People have been riding high on free money (low interest rates) but reality is about to become a harsh mistress.
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November 28th, 2005 at 9:01 pm
I never liked ones who cried “the sky is falling”, but with all the homes sitting on my block with sale signs the market is stagnant. Blessing in disguise for many in the younger age bracket, we finally get to move out of our parent’s homes.
It is a strange feeling for my husband and me to live in our home we bough two year ago and know no one would by it for what we paid for it, despite all the updates we made to the home.
November 28th, 2005 at 9:01 pm
I don’t think they’ll drop that low. Unlike with previous bubbles, there is true demand behind the inflated housing prices. So the bubble is more deflating than popping, and it’s mostly because of higher interest rates. People who have been buying houses with adjustible or interest only mortgages are about to face a rude awakening though…
November 28th, 2005 at 9:20 pm
We’re fortunate all of these projects were done when the market was hot, if it does in fact tank. A lot of vacant and dangerous buildings have been redeveloped thanks to that market. If prices come down, great for the consumer.
November 28th, 2005 at 9:34 pm
Although there has been a run-up in short term interest rates, the long term rates have not changed that much. Those that obtain 30-yr fixed mortgages are not affected too much as yet. However, many have relied on ARMs tied to low down-payments, and they are at risk. And with fewer of those type mortgages available going forward, a slow-down is pretty much assured. That may reduce the prices somewhat, but probably not enough to make a big difference on ability to purchase.
A bigger effect may be that real estate investors will reap smaller returns, and may even lose money. Development will slow, and therefore so will the workforce opportunities. Tax rates will rise as the thirst for spending will continue while values stabilize and new growth diminishes.
The real problem is too much of the wealth is held by too few of the people, and therefore the market is very “thin”, with more potential sellers than buyers. The best opportunity may be for those buyers who have sufficient capital and income to qualify for a long term fixed rate mortgage, as they may be able to get a house for a reasonable price without the risk of interest rate increases.
November 28th, 2005 at 11:43 pm
I don’t see how Massachusetts is sustaining a demand. We’re losing jobs in the state. Who the heck are all these buyers?
Somehow the balance seems off to me.
November 29th, 2005 at 8:25 am
An article from the Globe describes the situation, but doesn’t seem to offer much hope for substantially lower housing costs, except for the high-priced range.
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2005/11/29/mass_home_sales_fall_in_october/
November 29th, 2005 at 1:03 pm
This is only from a personal point of view, but the problem with downtown’s condos are that they feel like apartments not typical townhouse condos. My husband and lived in an apartment for a few years, even though we don’t have much time for yard work we wished atleast we had a balcony or porch to BBQ a summer diiner on a grill. And now we live on a postage stamp, atleast I can put out a few potted plants. Also it was repeated in my head that the working conditions in the mills were horrible, so I can’t imagine wanting to live there. (I know it sound rather silly, but that is my first thought) Again my comments are strictly personal as a consumer.
November 29th, 2005 at 1:05 pm
I think Ken’s statements are pretty accurate. I keep a pretty close eye on the prices around town. I don’t really see the bubble bursting, but prices have come down a little.
I hardly think that the downturn will make things affordable for couples that are just starting out. We’d need to see a downturn like the one in the early 90’s to see housing become truly affordable. Honestly, I hope we don’t see times like that again, the economy was pretty ugly.
November 30th, 2005 at 10:26 am
As someone who is buying a house next year (the good Lord and Equifax willing), I do hope the prices drop just a little bit more.
WF