Left In Lowell

It looks like New England has dodged a bullet for the most part. (Ask the hundreds of people whose houses are flooded if they feel that way, though!) Reports on the TV this morning have the Merrimack going down slightly from its crest. Some rivers have yet to crest and some dams are still in danger, hopefully we can get some reform of our inspection system for the state’s dams.

It could have been much worse than it was. The good news is that with the high water mark significantly short of both the 1936 and the 1852 floods, the water plant looks safe. Personally, I will not be drinking or cooking with the water from the tap (except that which I put in the fridge yesterday) just in case. I know the plants can deal with extra raw sewage (there have been problems upstream) but goodness knows what other chemicals have contaminated the water coming down the Merrimack. It will eventually flush out, but I shudder to think, especially after seeing a Moble gas station under water. I do suggest getting some bottled water from the store if there’s any to be had; this will have the double effect of conserving tap water (which they are telling people to do) and ensuring at least some level of safety in regards to chemical contamination.

I’m really sorry I was right about the new weather pattern, though. You do remember last May, which was as cold and almost as rainy? Or last October, which was the same way? It seems we will have to get used to it. Global climate change is already underway and we’ll likely see more of this over the next decade at least.

I have a theory, not based on anything other than common sense (I have yet to see the science) that the warmer water in the tropics off Florida due to global warming are at fault. You’ll have noticed by now that almost all of the moisture we’ve seen these last few weeks came in from the south east; off the water instead of from the west with the prevailing trade winds. I think you can safely blame the Gulf Stream, that ocean current which comes up the eastern seaboard and keeps us (and northern Europe, by the way) temperate. It’s acting like a conveyor belt for all the extra evaporation at the tropics.

Why spring and fall? Well, the earth’s tilt causes the sun to “move” from north to south (giving us more daylight and direct sun at the peak of summer), and its highest intensity at the equator is during the spring and fall when it passes directly overhead of the equator. With the water already warmed a few degrees higher (also blamed for the quickening intensity of hurricanes), there’s more moisture evaporating from the ocean, which then finds it convenient to follow the track of the Gulf Stream. That ocean current takes it up the east coast where it appears to be hitting New England.

I noticed this last October when I saw a weather map of the eastern US on TV. It was like a river of moisture off the east coast from south Florida up to New England where it flowed onshore for a couple of weeks straight, giving us a long, cold, cloudy, rainy weather pattern. I knew then we were in trouble, and I knew then that this May would look much the same as it did last year. I’m sorry to say that I was right. I hope I’m wrong about next October, but it’s not looking good right now.

So that’s my theory. I’m sure the weather pattern is much more complex than that, and moisture from the Gulf coast and the Pacific must play some role as well. But if I am right, and we will see record rainfall in the spring and fall for the foreseeable future, that means the chances of another flood like this one, or worse, remain high. If it’s the fault of the Gulf Stream, well, we do have some relief in sight: some theories about our generally-useful ocean current is that the salinity changes in the Atlantic due to melting glaciers will cause it to shift or cease its circulation pattern, giving the northeast and especially temperate western Europe much harsher winters.

Of course, it’s just a theory. But you can see for yourself something is rotten in the state of Mother Nature.