The convention was a squeaker for late entrant Chris Gabrieli, where he got just 15.36% of delegates to vote for him to be on the September primary ballot for governor. I’m sure he’s at home with his family celebrating, but should he be? Here’s why I think he has done more damage to the party’s chances in November then he will ever admit.
First, let me be clear. I am wholeheartedly supporting Deval Patrick, am a volunteer for his campaign, and know a lot of his staffers by first name. However, I am first and foremost intent on getting a Democrat in the corner office. I joined the Deval team because I saw that he was inspiring armies of new people to reengage as Democrats. I believe the progressive/government-accountability movement is reaching critical mass, and Deval’s the sort of leader who is our best shot at not only turning out the base in November, but reaching the masses of voters who have tuned out of the process all together in disgust. Voters who have been leaving the party in record numbers for Unenrolled status but coming back to the fold. Voters that the Democrats keep thinking are voting for Republican governors because our nominees aren’t in the “center” enough, but who really vote that way because they see bad leadership from the Democratic party and its candidates and are tired of machine-driven, unaccountable pols. People who like to punish the Democratic party for its arrogant assumption that they should always vote for our guy, no matter how unaccountable or inaccessible to the people, no matter how closed off they are.
Gabrieli entered the race when several party activists and insiders convinced him he’d be the savior of the Democrats after the presumed front-runner and party machine choice Tom Reilly showed us he “wasn’t good at politics.” These people were desperately looking for a candidate because Deval Patrick, after doing his homework for over a year, swept the caucuses and looked to be gaining in the polls against Reilly. It looked like Patrick might - gasp - win! Gabrieli himself has, of course, bought the hype about his mythical savior status. I heard him say as much in his April appearance at a GLAD meeting.
But here’s my beef. It’s not with Gabrieli as a candidate. I think he’s a decent speaker, a person who shares my values, and someone who should be commended for his service to the public good. My problem is with the fact that his campaign has the most damage to make to the race, the party, and to our bid for governor. (Reilly’s unfair, misleading attacks on his opponents aside.)
It’s all about one simple fact: Gabrieli jumped into the race at the last minute.
Why does this jeopardize our chances in the fall? It’s because Gabrieli has lots of idle money to spend, but nowhere near enough time to get actual, solid field support by true believers willing to volunteer hours a week of their time to help him win.
With all that money, Gabrieli can inundate the airwaves, attack his opponents, hire consultants and even a large campaign staff, and do all the things needed to be done to win the primary. But come the general, when his money advantage is negated by Kerry Healey’s husband’s money, the support will be shallow. Voters will be easily tricked or convinced to vote for another Republican. And the Democratic machine, while it holds an iron grip on party leadership, is tired, old, worn out. It hasn’t won a gubernatorial election in 16 years. It isn’t capable. It’s also reluctant to change the consultant-driven tactics which have failed us on a state and national level for so many decades. When the money starts flying, the only answer with Gabrieli at the helm is to answer Republican tactics in kind. Given a choice between a Republican, and a Republican-lite, voters will go with the real Republican. Never mind how far the gap in political philosophy between the parties, it is often tactics that make or break a candidate, not what he says but how believable he is when he says it, with all the baggage from opponent attacks clutching at from his ankles like so many “Just Married” tin cans on strings. Without physical, neighbor to neighbor, one-street-at-a-time support, Gabrieli will appear like a guy with so much money he can be whatever he thinks the voters want. Voters hate that. With two of those types of candidates in the race, it’s just as likely they’ll go with Healey as not.
If Gabrieli had been in the race since before the caucuses, gathering steam and a field team on his own merits, or even unable to gather them, I would say he deserves a place on the ballot and any damage he inflicts on other Democrats, win or lose, is part of the game. In fact, if he were backed by the same sorts of people who are with Deval, I’d say his incentive is to do the least damage to his primary opponents, lest he anger his own base of support. People love Deval not just because he’s strong on issues and offers commonsense, pragmatic solutions, but because his tactics endear him to those of us tired of business as usual. Deval got his support one neighbor at a time on the merits of his candidacy, and could easily lose that support as well…and he knows it.
Some of this argument against a Gabrieli victory could apply to Reilly as well. Reilly has constantly rested on his laurels in the last year as the heir presumptive, only scrambling at the last minute when it looked like there would be a strong challenger. (Actually, I’d argue he was far behind the eight ball. To me, it was evident for months that Patrick was gaining a lot of support.) Of course, Gabrieli could have jumped in back then, but I suspect was discouraged by insiders if he even contemplated it at all.
Reilly also has a lot of money in the bank, despite being the least wealthy candidate in the whole race. He seemed to assume that having the inner workings of the Democratic party on his side will win him a general election, which given the track record of the party leaves me wondering about his capacity for strategy. But at least he’s been in this race for long enough to start to gather the sort of momentum needed to win against Healey in the fall.
This was all made very apparent this weekend at the convention, where even Reilly’s support could be called deafening compared to Gabrieli’s. For Gabrieli’s speech, a crew of non-delegate activists came forward to wave signs, and there were a few out in the delegate sections, but by and large fell far short of the Reilly crowd, and of course paled next to Patrick’s. While most Conventional Wisdom media types would insist this only reflects “insider” support, that is belied in the makeup of the Patrick delegates. I don’t have hard numbers, but I would guess anywhere between 50-75% of his delegates had never been to a convention. I can’t even tell you the number of times someone said to me, “This is my first time doing this!”
If that sort of new, enthusiastic support doesn’t bode well for a Patrick nomination for the general election, I don’t know what does.
June 4th, 2006 at 1:09 pm
You may have touched on it, but to clarify, the primary problem with Gabrieli’s money in the primary is that it will sap the resources of his Democratic competitors, so that the primary winner will be partially disarmed in the battle with Healey.
June 4th, 2006 at 1:18 pm
That too. But seriously, voters can sense shallow support. However, when their friends and neighbors are talking about a candidate they like…when your block hosts several volunteers inviting you to a house party…when people in your town take a sunny weekend afternoon to stand on a corner with signs, waving and smiling…it makes a huge difference.
The only reason people don’t think it does is because we have not seen this kind of campaign in Massachusetts in a long time. It’s all machine this and money that.
But, we resolve to show Massachusetts a different sort of politics!
June 4th, 2006 at 2:04 pm
I was one of those first-time delegates. Of our little delegation
of four and one alternate, 3 had never been to a convention before.
That’s 60%. I would love to know if the party kept, or keeps, stats
on this. Would make for an interesting angle.
June 4th, 2006 at 2:14 pm
The reason why I decided to vote for Gabrieli instead of Patrick was because I believe that if the September primary ballot was just Patrick/Reilly, it would do more damage to Patrick over the long run. Reilly’s debates have been very aggresive against the candidates, rather than on addressing issues. With Gabrieli in the mix now, it would weaken Reilly’s ability to call out a target, allow Gabrieli to promote certain issues, and allow Patrick the opportunity to articulate on his position much more without being attacked so much by the traditional Democrats represented by Reilly’s campaign.
I won’t dare to publicly speculate on whether Gabrieli will end up covering the margin by September. All I know is that I am supporting a primary that is civil and allows for people besides delegates to have a reason to take a critical look at the candidates based on stances on issues, rather than on personality.
June 4th, 2006 at 2:25 pm
Gabrieli’s support is shown to be more drawn from Patrick than Reilly. Mostly because on the issues and in campaign style, Gabrieli and Patrick are more similar then either two are with Reilly.
I think it’s going to hurt Patrick more than help, drawing Reilly’s fire aside. But that’s not why I’m unhappy he made the ballot. I’m unhappy because Gabrieli has some serious flaws if he becomes the nominee - most of it from his Johnny-come-lately entrance into the race. I want the corner office back in November! Reilly is a bad candidate both in the primary and the general because he’s bad at politics. The primary would have likely taken care of him on that fact alone, without Gabrieli. But Gabrieli has both the money and the message to win in September, or split the primary enough to let Reilly win. Either case, I believe, will only hobble us come November.
June 4th, 2006 at 2:34 pm
I would imagine that the Patrick camp is so adamant and inspired by Patrick’s ability at public speaking that the 58% of his delegate support would translate the same, if not more, for the September primary.
Is there a link to some information on Gabrieli taking more away from Patrick than from Reilly? I need to check the numbers.
June 4th, 2006 at 3:21 pm
Not to mention the slimy campaign tactics he has employed so far.. ugh. Backroom deals, misleading calls and letters…
June 4th, 2006 at 3:37 pm
Lynne, thanks for your thoughtful analysis. I’ve been on BMG reading about how a “catastrophe” was averted because Gabrieli got on the ballot. My instinct is that you are right, but I’m hopeful nonetheless that we can have civil, issues-driven campaign.
They should all three keep the heat on Healey/Romney rather than on each other.
June 4th, 2006 at 3:51 pm
Lynne - I don’t know if you heard, but all votes are equal.
It doesn’t matter if support is shallow and you just like the guy the best of the three or if it’s really deep and you’re willing to overlook things like a questionable relationship to Ameriquest.
If Gabrieli has the most support, however deep, he’ll win the primary. Likewise for Deval or Reilly.
And whoever is the nominee should have the support of the Party, unless certain people want to take their ball and go home.
Personally, I’d estimate that about 20% of the Deval delegates I personally spoke to said that they would have been with Gabrieli if he got in earlier.
Whoever has the most overall support will be the nominee - and any one of our candidates will floor Kerry Healey.
So save the sour grapes over not knocking Gabrieli out of the race.
June 4th, 2006 at 3:59 pm
Gabrieli spent $2.4 million for approximately SEVEN HUNDRED votes at the convention! That’s over $3000 ***PER VOTE***!! Even I don’t believe that even he could afford to spend that much for each vote in the primary but he definately is willing to spend an excessive amount which is why I fear Gabrieli in the primary. An election is a popularity contest and the best way to get votes is to put your name in front of the voters as many times as possible in memorable ways. With enough money even *I* could get elected to Governor! (But it would probably be considerably more than $3000 per vote!) If Gabrieli makes the primary a spending contest which I expect he will then he may be the only candidate who will have anything left to spend in the general election and that’s assuming he’s the elected candidate. If Patrick’s the elected candidate after a budget-draining campaign then he may not have the finances left to fight Kerrey Healey’s husband’s millions. So either way Massachusetts is the loser.
June 4th, 2006 at 4:06 pm
I’m on the fence, personally, although I’ve made my displeasure with the Gabrieli campaign well-known over on BMG.
However, I will point out that Patrick and Gabrieli made a pretty good tag-team against Reilly in a recent debate (Ch. 56?).
June 4th, 2006 at 4:27 pm
Rich, I think you diminish Deval Patrick’s strength when you cite how good a public speaker he is. In listening to the replay of his convention speech, I am more struck by his sense of commitment and leadership than his actual “speaking”. He may be one of those unique politicians that we would dismiss at our own peril. If so, we should not let that happen. Then again, he may be only a facade leader, but a good actor. I think I will rely on Lynne and others who know him better until facts show something different.
June 4th, 2006 at 4:49 pm
Waittil, et al:
Deval is the real deal. I’ve met him in person several times now and you can tell that what he says goes far, far deeper than superficial speechmaking. He’s one of a rare breed of contemporary politicians who, perhaps like Barack Obama, not only manages to articulate his passion and his committment, but really does believe in that which he professes — and inspires others to get on board.
I’ve found myself to be a pretty savvy judge of character, and I tell you: Deval Patrick is absolutely someone special; we should be so lucky to have somone of his experience, skill, and character once in a generation. Fortunately we have ours. Let’s share our bounty and get this guy elected.
June 4th, 2006 at 5:43 pm
Waittil,
The reason why I pointed out Deval’s public speaking ability is because it is something that can influence a crowd that may or may not have much information about the candidate’s accomplishments. I showed my peers a link to his presentation from the Convention and they were instantly energized by his words. That ability alone creates a wonderful lead-in for people to look into his character and history.
As a result, I don’t believe that he will need to spend as much money as Gabrieli in order to influence voters for September. Worst-case scenario is that it will turn into a grassroots campaign vs. a media blitz campaign. It would simply force the Patrick campaign to mobilize much more than before, creating more momentum that if Patrick succeeds in September, he should have no real problem carrying that over into November.
June 4th, 2006 at 9:15 pm
I’m with Rich (nice meeting you at the convention). Assuming Gabrieli doesn’t go all-out attack-mode against Deval (and he really doesn’t seem like the type), he’ll be more of a boost to the general than he will a drag. I’m for Patrick for all of the reasons that Lynne states very well but more ad buys focusing on democratic issues are a good thing. Especially since Gabs has such a bent for technological issues, which could use some attention in this high-tech state. I’d go as far as to say that after winning the primary (and he will), Deval should give Gabrieli some sort of position inside his administration that centers around technology. The guy is a very successful and competent businessman, after all. He just doesn’t hold a candle to Deval when it comes to political leadership and organization.
June 5th, 2006 at 8:53 am
Elton, It’s not sour grapes… it is a real concern. Sure every vote is equal. What Lynne is guaging here is the ability to get support for votes in the general should Gabrieli or Patrick get the nomination. Patrick has proven he has what it takes to put together a serious ground game… the kind of ground game you need to get through a general. Remember it was the chruches that were so often cited as key to Bush’s 04 victory… thats not because of their money but because of their ground game organizing. The concern is that Gabrieli’s method of getting through the nomination process will be more of a money game than a ground game and if that happens through the general you have to admit that in a money game you have to give advantage to Healy.
Deval now has a proven record of inspiring 1st time campaign contributors, 1st time precinct organizers, 1st time nomination convention delegates, 1st time interest in the democratic party. This is just the advantage we need and the potential for Gabrieli to shift the focus to money undercuts it.
June 5th, 2006 at 9:58 am
Deval also gives us the opportunity to rebuild a lagging, tired state Democratic party.
Some in the Democratic party leadership are very afraid of this. It’s a loss of control for them…all these newbies who haven’t “paid their dues” like they have (read: exchanged favors and access with elected officials, in many cases).
Deval is the guy who’ll do this precisely because he doesn’t mind the loss of control. He’s willing to trust his grassroots with his campaign to an unprecidented extent. Because he’s the real deal and a smart, charismatic, honest leader, he’s inspiring people to be his grassroots. It’s that combo that will allow him to win. I do hope you guys are right - and that the three-way primary race only inspires Patrick’s people to greater heights. I think we’re up to the challenge. We need to prove that a self-funded millionaire using scads of his own money does NOT always win. That has been the case for a long time and it’s the reason we are losing our democracy. That’s what Crashing the Gate means.
To that end, anyone who wants to see Deval elected in November had better commit, because we’re going full bore starting now. I will be announcing the next Lowell for Deval Committee meeting soon, BE there!
June 5th, 2006 at 10:43 am
BTW, Deval will be appearing at the Old Town Hall in Chemlsford on the morning of Saturday, June 17. A “town hall” style meeting will take place, starting at around 11am.
Again, Carrie and I will be hosting a Deval house party that evening. More details to follow.
June 5th, 2006 at 1:27 pm
Elton,
You said
“Personally, I’d estimate that about 20% of the Deval delegates I personally spoke to said that they would have been with Gabrieli if he got in earlier.”
that is the most made up stat ever. I have backed Patrick and have spoken about him to many people in this area. Not one person I have spoken to has EVER mentioned any support to Gabrielli. Thats a joke, and a funny one at that. Gabrielli has no chance in the primary or the Gubernatorial race if he should make it. He is recognized as the “guy from the commercials” and not much else. Gabrielli’s voice, opinions and stances are relativy unknown. Because he hasn’t expressed them? No, he has, but because he doesn’t have the momentum of the other two candidates. He is seen as “the guy who runs for office, and loses” and in Massachusetts that usually makes you persona non grata. Patrick offers Massachusetts voters a chance at taking over the corner office and righting the sinking ship known as our state. O’Reilly is business as usual, and for massachusetts democrats to elect a man who is too lazy to even do a background check on his running mate would be a joke. Healey, while considered a liberal republican represents a party that is seen nationally as the problem, not the solution. I think it goes without saying that Gabrielli could hurt Patrick, and could even end up being the Ralf Nader of this election. This makes it that much more important that we, the Deval Patrick supporters on Massachusetts get out there and do something. Strike up a conversation with a stranger, put on a bumper sticker, spread the word. We need to unite so that others will follow. If we can do this, we will come out on top, if we sit here and assume everyone thinks, reads and researched like us, we will be defeated once again. If america had picked up a book , paper or magazine, or for one minute thought about the state of out government, Bush would have been defeated. They days of sitting around are over my friends, we need to make a statement.
June 5th, 2006 at 4:23 pm
Who said this? (see below)
“Liberals Howard Dean, Bill Richardson, and Ed Rendell have recently released their plan for America –– a One-Size-Fits-All plan to raise taxes, obstruct any border security plans, and relax education standards.
With narrowing hope of winning majorities in the U.S. House or Senate, Democrats are turning their attention toward defeating Republican Governors. Four states are all that separates the Democrats from winning a majority and nationalizing our Governors’ offices.
…
To tear down our Republican Governors and candidates, Howard Dean and Bill Richardson are launching a viciously negative campaign, supplemented by the same Michael Moore/George Soros shadowy organizations that were used against President Bush in 2004.
…
Providing innovative leadership, Republican Governors are working with President Bush to grow our economy, protect the homeland and ensure our children are receiving a quality education.
…”
Sincerely,
Mitt Romney Sonny Perdue
Governor, Massachusetts Governor, Georgia
RGA Chairman
June 5th, 2006 at 6:53 pm
“Shadowy organizations”? Like Moveon.org? You mean those people who operate in plain sight?