Member of the reality-based community of progressive (not anonymous) Massachusetts blogs
Now that the primary race for the 5th Congressional District is over, the analysis of the voting has begun. I am not referring to the numbers as they pertain to the MA-05 race but as they pertain to the upcoming Lowell City Council race.
Yesterday, Dick Howe was on WCAP’s morning show and as expected the discussion touched upon the Lowell congressional vote and its relation to this year’s City Council election. I am hoping that Dick will recap his thoughts and the ensuing discussion and post it on his blog. Apparently, there is “word on the street” that there may be a sticker campaign to put Eileen’s name on the November City ballot.
And last week, the Sun’s The Column astutely speculated:
A good Donoghue turnout in Lowell could also give a boost to her like-minded City Council supporters in the upcoming municipal election.
On the other hand, a poor showing here could signal a different political twist.
Let’s look at the numbers. There were 10,257 votes cast in Lowell, 9,307 on the Democratic side. She received 5,439 votes; 51.67 % of the total and 58.4% of the Democratic votes. She carried 31 of the 33 wards.
How many of those who voted for the other Congressional candidates would vote for her if this was a City Council race? My estimate is an additional 1,087. So, if these same 10,257 vote in this year City Council race, she would get at least 6,526 votes, 63.63%. In the 2005 City Council election, she received 56.87 % of the vote.
This is the unscientific method I used to derive at the number 1,087. I took 25% of the Eldridge (240); Tsongas (2,899) and Republican (1,220) votes. I did not use any of the Miceli (203) or Finegold (513) votes.
That is by all standards a conservative guess. But if you know the back story to this year’s City Council election, you will easily agree with that number. So to answer the Sun’s question, I think this was a great Donoghue turnout and that bodes well for those “like-minded.”
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September 7th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
I don’t think these numbers say much when you consider a few things. Among them: The Lowell Sun pushed the ED candidacy day in and day out like there as no tomorrow. Besides endorsing her, any positive news related to ED was front page when other candidates (notably NT) were bumped to page 8. (Not to mention that the newspaper even made up supposed “news” stories about ED over simple position statements, etc.) It was a little bit ridiculous. But to those voters who don’t follow things very closely, it is believable and it sells…..Another thing to remember: Steve Panagiatakos’ endorsement was huge for Donoghue. That will likely be absent from the CC race…..Finally, in the congressional race there was not as much interest as we will see in the CC race- a race in which there are a number of challengers who will be just as good as ED (if not better) at mobilizing troops to the polls.
September 7th, 2007 at 3:02 pm
I think that the last election and the next one are going to be totally different. My conclusion is that Eileen’s support in Lowell is pretty solid. A sticker/write-in is highly unlikely. She probably has more leverage in the CC election. With that kind of support, I would think HER endorsement will be valuable.
September 7th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
POD:
Great point about her endorsements for the CC race and that leverage; I wish I had thought about it.
Anonymous:
I do not agree with your assessment of the Sun’s coverage of this race. Yes, the story about the poll, may have been a bit overdone but Matt Murphy did a superb job in reporting on this race; not only the content, but the frequency and above all, it was fair and comprehensive.
I am not sure how to gauge endorsements and their impact. I can tell you one thing about Eileen’s campaign, she promoted her experience as City Council member and 4 years as Mayor of this City. I attended 8-9 debates, and that was the point she kept emphasizing. Yes, if I was running for office in Lowell, the first person I would want to endorse me is the Senator but at the end Eileen was the candidate and she carried Lowell on her own merits. Those who are paying attention, those who vote, are quite familiar with her 12 year record.
As for the interest in the CC race compared to the Congressional race, about 2,000 less people voted. Are those the troops the challengers are going to mobilize? I would think this would have been a good opportunity for them to do a dry run; especially for those challengers who have philosophical differences with Eileen and supported another candidate. In my opinion, it turned out to be a successful dry run for the like-minded incumbents.
(p.s. please stop using anonymous; establish an identity!)
September 7th, 2007 at 5:36 pm
Although I have never heard of ED working to assist any other campaigns or candidates in the past, the help she got from others in the congressional race certainly means she will be expected to assist a certain slate in the CC race in any way she can. I’m sure the Lowell Sun is already working on it!
September 7th, 2007 at 10:24 pm
Who is anonymous?
I would love to engage you in discussion but I don’t know if you are the same person or different people.
Are you (plural) that limited in your imagination that you can’t think of a name and stick to it? No one knows how you are. Make up a name and stick to it or I, for one, will ignore your posts!
Please!