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The latest and greatest snow job by the Bush administration (haven’t we heard this all before?) gets some push back. Here’s some of it:
Anbar is a fluke - it was going to happen (at least on some level) with or without the surge. The Sunni leaders were tired of Al Quada in Iraq, and sure, it helped having more US troops there to help clear them out, but Anbar is not necessarily repeatable everywhere. I’m not saying it’s a bad thing to help give moderates a space to breath and get the extremists out, but it’s certainly no result of the surge. What’s more, yesterday, Petraeus mislead Congress about it.
Violence against US troops went down (a bit). But against Iraqi civilians and Iraqi security, it’s not changing so much.
Iraqis themselves don’t think the surge is doing all that much for them. Given the chart linked above, it’s no wonder why.
Petraeus claims that due to progress (if it continues) he can withdraw the surge troops by next summer. No mention that we have no choice but to withdraw the troops, due to the fact the armed forces have been broken by this war of choice.
The progress is bullshit anyway.
Senator Harry Reid has some facts of his own released on his site. Some highlights:
General Petraeus Claimed the Pentagon’s Methodology for Tracking Sectarian Killings Was Reviewed By Two US Intelligence Agencies, But Did Not Name Them. […]
However, U.S. Intelligence Officials Questioned Pentagon’s Methods of Tracking Violence in Iraq. “The intelligence community has its own problems with military calculations. Intelligence analysts computing aggregate levels of violence against civilians for the NIE puzzled over how the military designated attacks as combat, sectarian or criminal, according to one senior intelligence official in Washington. ‘If a bullet went through the back of the head, it’s sectarian,’ the official said. ‘If it went through the front, it’s criminal.’” [Washington Post, 9/6/07]
A Military Spokesman Admitted It Did Not Track Shiite-on-Shiite or Sunni-on-Sunni Violence. “According to a spokesman for the Baghdad headquarters of the Multi-National Force-Iraq (MNF-I), those attacks are not included in the military’s statistics. ‘Given a lack of capability to accurately track Shiite-on-Shiite and Sunni-on-Sunni violence, except in certain instances,’ the spokesman said, ‘we do not track this data to any significant degree.’” [Washington Post, 9/6/07]
And, the GAO Found Claims of Decreased Sectarian Violence Could Not Be Verified. “On trends in sectarian violence, we could not determine if sectarian violence had declined since the start of the Baghdad Security Plan. The administration’s July 2007 report stated that MNF-I trend data demonstrated a decrease in sectarian violence since the start of the Baghdad Security Plan in mid-February 2007. The report acknowledged that precise measurements vary, and that it was too early to determine if the decrease would be sustainable.” [GAO Report: Securing, Stabilizing and Rebuilding Iraq, September 2007]
General Petraeus Claimed the Number of Car Bombings Has Come Down. […]
However, The Military Does Not Include Car Bombings in Sectarian Violence Statistics. “According to U.S. military figures, an average of 1,000 Iraqis have died each month since March in sectarian violence. That compares with about 1,200 a month at the start of the security plan, the military said in an e-mailed response to queries. This does not include deaths from car bombings, which the military said have numbered more than 2,600 this year.” [LA Times, 9/4/07 ]
And, The Number of Car Bombings In Iraq Was Five Percent Higher in July 2007 than in December 2006. The number of car bombings in July actually was 5 percent higher than the number recorded last December, according to statistics given to the McClatchy news organization, and the number of civilians killed in explosions is about the same. [McClatchy Newspapers, 8/15/07]
Reid also notes that the goalposts (yet again) have moved for the length of deployment.
As I said, we’ve heard it all before - and this time is no different. This post has not even gone into the total, utter lack of progress on the political side of things, which has been a disaster.
ThinkProgress has a quote from CBS’s Bob Schieffer:
CBS Face the Nation host Bob Schieffer said this morning that one of the lessons we learned from Vietnam “is that we were asking the wrong question” to our generals. “When we have to ask, are we winning? we’re probably losing. Victory is always obvious,” he said.
Let me preempt that question to General Petraeus. We haven’t lost this war, but we’re not winning it. We’re hanging on. Victory would be obvious. Iraqi families would be strolling the streets of Baghdad, and Osama bin Laden would be walking out of a cave somewhere with his hands up.
Instead of that question, let’s hope the general will be asked what we so often forgot during Vietnam: Is this worth the cost in lives and money?
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September 11th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
For years, the War Party has been telling us that if we withdraw from Iraq, the country or large sections of it will be taken over by al Qaeda, providing them with territory from which to operate unimpeded. What the anti-al-Qaeda operation in Anbar demonstrate is that it was only the American occupation was that allowing al Qaeda any room to operate in Iraq at all. Absent our occupation, they become hunted men.
So let’s look at the recent history in Anbar. Almost two years ago, with withdrew (retreated! cut and ran!) under fire from an alliance of local Sunni insurgents and foreign jihadists. And what happened? Exactly what people like John Murtha told us would happen - the locals turned their guns on the al Qaedists, took back their cities and towns from them, and did our job for us (a job that wouldn’t have needed doing if we hadn’t started this war, but let’s leave that aside). Those locals then turned to us as allies-of-convenience agains our common foe. So we sided with anti-government insurgents in a Baathist stronghold, over the objections of the central government in Baghdad.
The only legitimate success story Patreaus can point to is a thorough refutation of the strategy and doctrine behind Operation Iraqi Freedom, a case study in the type of counter-terrorist strategy that Iraq War opponents have been urging us to pursue instead, in the cause of solving a problem that was created by our own misguided actions.
As this episode shows, withdrawal is a tool in our toolbox, one that can be used to advance our security. The administration pays lip service to the need for a political solution, but they haven’t the foggiest idea how to make it happen.
September 11th, 2007 at 12:43 pm
To further the irritation, the media has picked up on the General’s claim of a siginificant “drawdown” of forces by mid-2008, apparently not recognizing that will only return us to the levels of the past 4 years. What progress is that?
September 11th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
I am a 2 tour Vietnam Veteran who recently retired after 36 years of working in the Defense Industrial Complex on many of the weapons systems being used by our forces as we speak. I believed another Vietnam could be avoided with defined missions and the best armaments in the world.
It made no difference.
We have bought into the Military Industrial Complex (MIC). If you would like to read how this happens please see:
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/03/spyagency200703
Through a combination of public apathy and threats by the MIC we have let the SYSTEM get too large. It is now a SYSTEMIC problem and the SYSTEM is out of control. Government and industry are merging and that is very dangerous.
There is no conspiracy. The SYSTEM has gotten so big that those who make it up and run it day to day in industry and government simply are perpetuating their existance.
The politicians rely on them for details and recommendations because they cannot possibly grasp the nuances of the environment and the BIG SYSTEM.
So, the system has to go bust and then be re-scaled, fixed and re-designed to run efficiently and prudently, just like any other big machine that runs poorly or becomes obsolete or dangerous.
This situation will right itself through trauma. I see a government ENRON on the horizon, with an associated house cleaning.
The next president will come and go along with his appointees and politicos. The event to watch is the collapse of the MIC.
For more details see:
http://rosecoveredglasses.blogspot.com/2006/11/odyssey-of-armaments.html
September 11th, 2007 at 2:37 pm
One problem with the Petraeus testimony is that Congress is asking the wrong question, yet we all are debating the answer. We cannot expect the General to provide anything but the standard military progress answers, as he has done before:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A49283-2004Sep25.html
Congress must take responsibility for the policy, not the execution of it. And the policy is wrong, and has been since it was promoted under false premises 5 years ago. Congress has the power - they must use it to stop the madness.
September 11th, 2007 at 3:41 pm
Some quotes from William Swanson, CEO of Raytheon Company, that illustrate KL’s suggestions.
“The Middle East now has the money with petrodollars to upgrade their defense systems, and it looks like the (Bush) administration is going to give them the capability to acquire this equipment,” he said.
Raytheon’s Patriot missile system remains in high demand, with Japan showing more interest following China’s successful use of a missile to destroy an orbiting satellite last January, Swanson said. Taiwan and South Korea are also showing a greater interest in Raytheon’s products, he said.
“Across the world…things are lining up better,” Swanson said, adding Raytheon currently does business in about 80 countries.
“In a global sense, our growth has been organic, and I see that continuing,” he said. “We’re in the right markets.”
Additionally, Swanson said the upcoming U.S. military “reset,” when old and destroyed equipment used during the Iraq occupation are replaced, will be a “big number” for the company.
September 15th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
Another power play by the military-industrial complex to influence Bush on political issues:
WASHINGTON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - A U.S. business group accused the Bush administration Friday of jeopardizing Taiwan’s security by stalling a potential $4.9 billion deal for 66 advanced Lockheed Martin Corp F-16 fighter jets.
In recent weeks, the administration has heaped pressure on President Chen Shui-bian to abort a planned referendum on United Nations membership in the name of Taiwan.
As part of its drive to derail what it deems a provocation to Beijing, U.S. officials have told Taipei to delay formal efforts to acquire the F-16C/Ds, said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council.
“This is unprecedented in any bilateral U.S. security relationship,” Hammond-Chambers said in a telephone interview. “Depriving Taiwan of the arms it needs is inherently destabilizing.”
The business council represents about 100 U.S. companies doing business with Taiwan, including top U.S. military contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Raytheon Co.
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