Left In Lowell

On Tuesday, the WBZ Survey USA poll (collected 9/7 – 9/10) of the 5th Congressional race was released and it came to a surprise to most people that Niki Tsongas (D) was leading Jim Ogonowski (R) by only 10%.

Matt Viser who write the popular Boston Globe blog, All Politics are Local, and has followed this race from the beginning commented on the poll results and said that “Republicans have been trumpeting the Oct. 16 election as their first chance in years to gain back a congressional seat, but this is the first sign that they are within range and could trigger attention from the national parties.”

The key to Ogonowski’s strong showing is the support he received from the unenrolled registered voter.. According to the pollster’s analysis, “Though just 18% of likely voters in SurveyUSA’s turnout model are self-identified Republicans, Republican Jim Ogonowski gets 41% of the vote, leading Tsongas among Independents, who make-up 40% of likely voters.” This appears to be the key.

In addition to the typical and expected differences in their support, ideological and party affiliation, there appears to be gender gap. Ogonowski received 53% of the male vote and Tsongas 61% of the female vote.

The news was welcomed on Republican blogs like Redmassgroup and discussed on Democratic blogs like Richardhowe.com.

I am giving this poll a lot of weight for two reasons. One I know that this polling is a good indicator of how you will vote, if you will vote. I was polled by them during the primaries. The questions are pre-recorded and you just press numbers to answer. If you intend to vote, you will answer this poll; if you do not care, you will hang up. And you will not be lead or pushed by the pollster.

Another thing, the last USASurvey poll conducted in the primary, the one that was released on August 30th, a few days before the election. The one that indicated that Eileen Donoghue was 11% behind Niki Tsongas; as we know Tsonga won by only 5%. The pollsters predicted that Donoghue was coming on and the outcome could be closer. They were right.

It is such a short campaign that anything can happen. I am concerned that not enough Democrats will come out to vote and thus leave the election to the unenrolled and Republicans. We need to get our second wind and make sure that we send a Democrat to Congress. I do not want to see the Massachusetts 5th Congressional District represented by a Republican who supports Bush’s war policy; even if he is a “nice guy” Republican.