Left In Lowell

Republican Disarray and the Establishment

by Lynne at 12:41 pm.

I’ve said before how much fun the Republican primary has been, and how fascinating, as Mike put it yesterday in our podcast. For a party which likes to pick from the top down, as in 2000, when Bush garnered the Establishment economic conservatives which forced McCain, who would’ve liked to be their guy, to run an insurgent campaign, gussying up his rather modest previous rebellions and becoming the media-darling “maverick” who took NH. Of course, it all came to naught, once the Establishment Fought Back in South Carolina with a crushing smear campaign.

He’s shed his false maverick image, buckling in to Bush doctrine about war, torture, and economic policies (becoming a Born-Again Trickle-Down fanatic). And now, down to the wire, I predict he will win the Republican nomination once all is said and done.

Why? Because he’s become the Establishment Republican candidate, and they always win the primary. After casting around adrift for their economic tax-cut savior, first lighting on Giuliani and then Romney, then hoping Fred Thompson could save them, they found out that all three are deeply flawed…the first two anathema to the social conservative base and the latter just a snoozer. McCain stands out as the candidate those two big factions of the Republican party can both vote for.

As for Huckabee, as much as I want him to be the nominee, he’s this year’s “insurgent Republican.” He can’t win, because not only do his economic conservative creds languish, but They know that he’s unpalatable in the general election. After watching some of Huckabee’s speeches, I don’t think he’s the sort of guy to “flip-flop” to the middle to win a general election (unlike Romney, whose convictions turn on a dime). I think he takes the God-raised-my-poll-numbers rhetoric to every state in this union, and that doesn’t fly with the 65% of people who might or might not be religious, but they ain’t that sort of religious. (In other words, Huckabee looks, acts, and speaks like a Dominionist, someone who wants religion to reign supreme in the land…the real American Taliban.)

I predict Huckabee will be torpedoed by his own party in favor of McCain (with any means necessary) by that same establishment which destroyed McCain in South Carolina after he shockingly won NH. The Republicans are nothing if not formulaic. It might have taken them some time to execute the formula in the chaos of the split Republican factions, but McCain’s their man now. His current rebirth in the polls, especially in NH where he won in 2000, is a very deliberate emergence.

As to who I’d like to run against, McCain is probably the last on that list. There are still too many “independent” idiots who think of him as a maverick who’ll buck the system (especially gushing media types) and he’s one of the few super-social-conservatives who doesn’t come off as a nut. However, he’s hung around the neck with the weight of the last seven years of Bush, war, fear-mongering, loss of Constitutional rights and fiscal disaster. He’s capitulated even on his signature “maverick” issue - that of being being a former POW who stands against torture (sad, that this is a “maverick” position in Republand). I’d much rather go up against Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani, or Thompson, but I still like our chances against a diminished, Establishment McCain who will have to broadcast his pro-war, pro-rich, ultrareligious positions in order to retain that support.

So I’m rooting for Huckabee, the one guy I once feared could credibly run in the general. I hope he busts the formula this year, but my prediction is that he will not.

[Filed under Election '08] [link]

9 Responses to “Republican Disarray and the Establishment”

waittilnextyr Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
McCain has blown it - he really believes the “surge” was the right thing to do, and it has “worked”! And although done in jest, his “bomb, bomb ,Iran” song should be sufficient to make everyone think twice about putting him in charge. He promotes his savings (to sustain tax cuts) on eliminating $10B in earmarks from the budget, but doesn’t worry about spending $10B a month in a war that shouldn’t have been waged in the first place. The most you can say about McCain is that he is a better man than Romney.
Lynne Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Oh, I agree…he’s not electable (so long as our Democrat, whoever that is, doesn’t screw up their campaign) but he’s certainly the most “universal” base-friendly of all the Republicans running.

I do believe that the previous comment is spam - I will endeavor to delete it.
Christopher Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:56 pm
McCain is VERY electable, though his position on Iraq may well be his Achilles’ Heel. I certainly wouldn’t categorize him as ultrareligious. Sure, he’s pro-life, but he also very publicly called out Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson when he ran in 2000. I can’t recall him speaking a lot about his faith. Don’t assume Huckabee will be easy to beat in a general election. He comes across to me as very thoughtful and likable and I assume he will not campaign by railing against Darwinism.
joe Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 8:05 pm
The national media are going to go to bat for McCain like nothing we’ve ever seen if he starts winning primaries. They love that guy.

I think that cold weather + disappointed Republicans not turning out + all the independents voting in the Democratic primary + wacko libertarian fanaticism = a very strong finish for Ron Paul.
Lynne Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 8:35 pm
He called out Falwell etc way back, THEN retracted and buttered up to them…so no, he’s not credible on that front.

Huckabee sounds rather articulate, but then keeps totally screwing up on very important current events on a regular basis (the latest in messing up on which late night show had its writers back, and crossing a picket line to go on Leno). But the others, on Iran and Pakistan, are way more serious and he will be crushed quickly if he continues, which there’s no indication he won’t.

And then there’s the crazy god rants, besides. He’s as good as lost if he wins the R nomination.
Lynne Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 8:37 pm
joe: Paul will likely do OK in NH…not sure about Iowa…but there really isn’t predicting anything right now with the first couple of primaries. We won’t really know until we know. That’s why I’ve stayed away from primary predictions, just overall observations.
Christopher Says:
January 4th, 2008 at 12:30 am
Lynne, I’m not sure going to Leno was a mistake from Huckabee’s standpoint. Republicans don’t worship picket lines the way Democrats seem to. Many of us know the he’s a religious right-winger because we pay attention, but he can very easily let that fly under the radar. I think many Americans would vote for him.
Lynne Says:
January 4th, 2008 at 10:32 am
It was a gaffe, showing he is stupid and has no knowledge of the outside world, even the one that’s been in the news CONstantly. That is why it was a big mistake, not going on the show, but his total ignorance about the situation with the writers strike. Of COURSE Repubs don’t care about that situation much. But that wasn’t my point. My point is he claimed he was happy not to cross a picket line because “don’t the late night shows have some sort of dispensation” and he came off looking like a total fool. There’s no indication he’ll stop doing that down the line, and this is a loooooong campaign.
Elias Nugator Says:
January 4th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
It all comes down to this:
If Romney has self-destructed, and that is a big if going into the NH Primary next week…then who is less unacceptable to GOP Big Money?
Huckabee the hillbilly sky grifter or McCain the ill-tempered semi-apostate?
My gut is, the GOP moneymen will grudgingly go with McCain thinking either he will lose or even if he wins he will prove too old and ubiquitous to really threaten their hegemony. It is too late to try one last time to pump up that lazy old dirtbag Thompson, so their choices are limited and unappealing.
GOOD
They need to have problems, LOTS of problems.

Elias Nugator
Marshal of the Commonwealth

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January 3, 2008

Republican Disarray and the Establishment

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