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April 28th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
In answer to your title question, I definitely come down on the side of stronger. At this point it doesn’t really matter who wins each primary and by how much, at least in terms of the math. Barring a landslide each candidate will probably get the same number of pledged delegates in each of the remaining states due to allocation formulae. It’s about spinning for the remaining superdelegate votes for both sides. When all is said and done Obama will probably have roughly the same lead in pledged delegates as he has now and Clinton has made it clear she’s not going anywhere.
April 29th, 2008 at 9:14 am
I wonder if you’d come down on the side of “stronger” if you were not a Clinton supporter? Does it pass the shoe on the other foot test?
Me, I think it’s neither. I think we’ll have more trouble because of the circular firing squad in the fall, but we’ll have more voters too. I do think if Clinton overturns the pledged delegate lead Obama has with superdelegates, Clinton loses a lot more votes than if Obama wins after being ahead. One of many reasons that Obama is the vastly stronger candidate for us in the fall.
Another reason why Obama is our best shot is that Clinton’s proved she’ll “go there” when she’s desperate, that she’ll lie or “forget” or distort a LOT when it comes to fighting her opponent. Yes, Obama has done some spinning, but Clinton’s spinned and lied a lot more. People hate believing their politicians are dishonest and without honor. Sorry, but she’s already failed that test.
Next reason, the fundraising! Obama just blows away all the records. Especially in small donors, which is a good thing for democracy (he’s less beholden to special interests) and makes those people available later on. We would CRUSH McCain with Obama’s fundraising. And while it’s despicable that money is the main arbiter of who will win, it is, in almost any election. Which is why, of course the Dem Leadership Council abandoned its traditional base of the working poor to suck up to big business like the Republicans, canonize Free Trade, and screw our party for decades.
Lastly, I think Obama’s campaign style, and energy, and his representation of “change” will really reset the politics we’ve been stuck with since Ray-gun. You can’t argue that Clinton doesn’t stand for the same old same old (hell, she’s running on Bill’s tenure as president a decade ago). All the new people, the young people, who are showing energy and interest in this election are in it because HE appeals to them. Clinton, I think, will not. (Neither will McCain, but we might just see a big segment of those voters not bother to show up in November if our nominee is Clinton.)
April 29th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Obama has been flat-footed lately.
He needs to come out with a new message, maybe an offensive about Hillary and McCain both trying to get us even more involved in Middle Eastern politics and wars.
April 29th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Lynne,
Yes, it absolutely passes the shoe on the other foot test for me, as long as the whole part about neither having clinched the nomination is true. Obviously there is no way to prove a counterfactual so you will just have to trust me. I believe I’ve already stated comments to other posts that Bill Clinton IS a key reason I’m supporting her given the track record of the 1990s. (Was it the peace or the prosperity you didn’t like?) As for electability, current rubrics say Obama trails McCain 269-243 electoral votes while Clinton leads McCain 291-247; this according to www.electoral-vote.com. I’m hoping for a unity ticket anyway, Clinton-Obama prefered, but Obama-Clinton quite acceptable.