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August 11th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Is the President still in Beijing sprawled in his seat looking bored? Or is Cheney handling this crisis again in complete contravention of the constitution?
Talk about a “phone call at 3am”.
And if the Russians don’t want a NATO client on their borders what then will they do about Poland et al in Eastern Europe?
Think about that for a moment.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:54 am
From Ezra:
August 11th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Maybe we need to open a base or two in Georgia. Seriously, they coughed up 2k soldiers in Iraq. Bush owes them. (Not that I’m urging anything crazy here, just something that will get the Russians to back down. We saved half of Berlin in the same way…)
August 11th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
The ironic part was watching Bush condemn Russia for invading an independent nation.
August 11th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
The world is watching the Olympics. Russia, headed by an old school soviet KBG bureaucrat decides this will be a good time to take back Georgia. Anyone surprised that a KGB born and bread ruler would do such a thing?
Naturally, the left blames Bush for this (Miss Lynne). I BO gets elected, Putin will take back all of the former Soviet States. Anyone watching the events in Russia since Putin’s first day could see that is his long term goal. He hate democracy more than the left in the US does.
In the US the left only like democracy when it gets the results they want. When democracy results in the elimination of the income tax in November, the left will cheer when Beacon Hill says “so what” and passes another bill raising the income tax to punish those of us who voted to repeal. But alas, I am side tracked again.
There is nothing President Bush can do regarding Georgia that the left will approve of. NOTHING! So stop blaming Bush for something ha has no control over.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
Fishy: honestly, stop while you’re behind.
Yes, it’s the leader of the free world’s fault for SQUANDERING our credibility (as PC pointed out) AND our resources AND our kids in an irrelevant, unnecessary war in Iraq. Yes it’s his fault we can no longer flex our military muscle when needed (who would actually believe our broken, tired and equipment-bare military could handle another conflict) as well as our economic might (which is backed now by debt from China). It’s his fault. On his watch.
Fishy, you are about to get banned. I’m not kidding. Phrases like “he hate democracy more than the left in the US does” though grammatically rather amusing are bordering on hate speech. Yeah, I must hate democracy so much, I’d want to preserve and protect that US Constitution, which doesn’t have anything to do with democracy, right? You know, that piece of paper George Bush ripped into shreds. Your guy. On his watch.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
And before I hear it from you “help, help, look, I’m being oppressed!” this blog is not a democracy. It’s a conversation, but it’s my house. If you came into my house and put big, muddy boots up on my couch I’d be well within my rights to throw you out for your rudeness. Same rules apply here.
Just to nip that little thought in the bud.
August 11th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
Depending upon the actual situation on the ground we might be able to do something in Georgia. I am not encouraging it, but we could use our airpower to even up the odds and allow the Georgian army to fight the ground war. Are we militarily ready for that? I am not sure, but our F-22s are not in Iraq and could be in the theater within 24 hours, along with a couple of AWACS and some tankers and C-17s flying supplies to the Georgian Army. Will the American People support it? I am not sure.
That said, I would think that we would need the support of Turkey and I am not sure it would be forthcoming, although they might not wish the Russians back on their NE border.
The real question for the Administration (and Congress) is, do we have any vital interests in Georgia? We could ask ourselve what would be the impact on Tukey, the Ukraine and Poland (and thus on NATO) of a Russian occupation of all of Georgia? Do we care?
This does come at a bad time–in the middle of a Presidential campaign. I would rather the candidates were not trying to second-guess the President at this point–or making commitments prematurely.
What would be our goal? Surely not allowing Georgia to regain lost Ossetian territory. But, Georgian freedom might be reasonable.
This would be a good “end of year” exercise for a National War College class.
Regards — Cliff
August 12th, 2008 at 8:36 am
Responding to Lynne’s point about our ground forces being fully committed in Iraq and Afghanistan, that is so true. I think Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, the day he order the plan to invade Iraq dusted off should have asked the President to ask Congress for an increase of 125,000 in the US Army’s end strength.
But, even if we did not have forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, using US ground forces to respond to this would be iffy. News photos show this to be a heavy force battle–tanks and other armored fighting vehicles. To get there the US Army would have had to spend a couple of days finding flatbed railway cars to get their stuff from forts to ports. Then by ship. You can’t airlift enough tanks and fuel trucks, etc.
We either unload at Turkish ports in the Med or go into the Black Sea through the Dardanelles, but that would involve the Montreux Convention, which might restrict our flow. For sure it would exclude aircraft carriers.
We have eight fast sealift ships that will do 30 knots, but when we bought more we went for the 24 knot version–to save energy. From the US East Coast to Iskenderun, Turkey, at 24 knots, is nine and a half days. Then unload, followed by overland movement to Georgia. (The military calls it RSOI–Reception, Staging, Onward Movement and Integration.)
We are talking several weeks and facing a fait accompli on the part of the Russians. Back to 1990. Are we prepared to reopen a finished action on the part of the Russians?
Some days there are no good options. Some days the dragon wins.
Regards — Cliff
August 12th, 2008 at 10:03 am
“Will the American People support it? I am not sure.”
The answer is “no”!
August 12th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
I think the whole thing is about oil and Russia looking to get control of it. I also believe the Olympic timing is deliberate. As do a couple of political on 2 different networks who pointe out that NOBODY starts trouble during the Olympics. And if anybody out there thinks anyone other than Putin is in control in Russia - Think again. Can we all spell “puppet”
August 13th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
I’ll tell you one thing - Russia has started to scare me a little bit. Whatever this is, it’s just not good.
Georgian democracy is by no means a great one - there have been some interesting allegations on some of its elections and whatnot. However, I am given to understand that it’s one of the best there is in the region.
I have no idea what possessed them to use military force in the breakaway province, after all, what did they expect? Not a smart move. However, Russia is interfering in the internal affairs of another country, and though we have NO credibility to tell them not to, it doesn’t make it right.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Facts on the ground:
Saakashvili’s Georgian troops launched a massive (unprovoked) assault on the breakaway province of South Ossetia on Friday, after engaging in fruitless negotiations with Russia. The Ossetian folks predominantly favor being allied with Russia.
RE:
what possessed them to use military force?
AFTER Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili declared a cease-fire with South Ossetian separatist troops, His military forces unleashed a barrage of shelling on the South Ossetia’s capital, Tskhinvali.
10 Russian peacekeeping troops had been killed and 30 injured in a Georgian artillery attack. Authorities in the South Ossetian separatist government also said 15 civilians were killed in the fighting.
What was Russia supposed to do for their people?
August 15th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Russia is not lily-white. They have been tacitly encouraging the separatists for ages. That’s like creating a problem and then saying, “see? you need me to solve it.” Uh uh. Not credible. And they DO have designs on regaining some of their clout and might, as well as oil, don’t tell me this is all about a tiny population of “their people” in another country (which, South Ossetia, for all it’s a breakaway region, technically IS.) After all, wouldn’t it then stand to reason they can say this for ALL their tiny populations in several other former satellite countries on their border?
Doesn’t mean Georgia is excused for their behavior either. I certainly don’t think it was moral or very smart to start using violence in S.O. However, Russia has consistently exaggerated the problem IN S. Ossetia according to the news reporters who’ve gotten into the region. They keep calling the Georgian aggression genocide - there’s NO evidence of that. However, a lot of Georgian towns within S.O. have been burnt to the ground and looted by Russian troops. What about those? Propaganda to justify their invasion and intervention after the fact is just as wrong as the Georgian violence committed in the first place (if not more so, as they constantly violated Georgian borders including non-S.O.).
August 15th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Russia’s design on Georgia of present, lead me to question what they have in store for other breakaway nations?
August 18th, 2008 at 10:16 am
The alacrity with which Russian forces responded suggest they set a trap and the Georgians stumbled–stupidly–into it.
Regards — Cliff