Left In Lowell

I hate polls. I love polls. Especially true for tracking polls (the three-day rolling daily polls that several outfits run). I hate them because it’s almost too much information - like a roller coaster ride you can’t get off even if you feel sick. I love them because they really gauge the direction of the elections, and within a few days of any one element (a debate, a suspension of a campaign for theatrics) you’ll know, in general, what the American people think about it. At least you know.

So for the past few days I’ve been getting that sick feeling again about the tracking polls. Not because Obama is sinking fast - but the opposite. Dailykos.com’s daily tracking poll crept up from 49, to 50, to 51% today for Obama, to McCain’s 42%. All the rest of the tracking polls are pretty much keeping pace with that advantage for Obama.

One thing I believe that is affecting the polls the most is the debate. I think there are a lot of undecideds who leaned Obama - or rather, were leaning heavily against McCain, after finding out the Sarah Palin decision was terrible, and post McCain-parachuting-into-D.C.-melodrama (which appears to have damaged the situation instead of helped). What these voters were looking for in Friday night’s debate was, “can I trust Obama? Is he presidential and worthy?” They wanted to think that he was, but hadn’t yet seen enough of him. On Friday night I was wincing about how many corrections to McCain’s fallacies Obama declined to make. But the undecided, less informed voter (let’s face it, we bloggers obsess about politics, most people do not) saw what they needed to. That Obama was a good alternative to McCain, perhaps even a great one. Every day, reading the tracking polls this weekend, I’ve hoped that it wasn’t an outlying anomaly. But it appears to be a genuine “bounce.”

Of course, these polls are national polls, and not much use, since the game is won in electoral votes and battleground states. And while you would think a 51%-42% Obama lead would ease my nervousness, I still am not breathing. After all, leads can turn on a dime, and they have. Still, the several points Obama gained on Mr. McGoo after a debate that was largely on McCain territory has me believing that the Obama campaign ship is in the right hands, making the right calls. Though my heart is in my throat watching the polls every morning, I at least know that much more than I did about Obama’s chances.

Only 37 more days of this…