Left In Lowell

This morning’s The Column had a civil and friendly tone; I am sure the absence of the editor’s name in the list of contributors was the primary reason.

And as far as the content, one of the sentences immediately caught my attention:

“[Former Mayor and City Councilor Eileen} Donoghue’s name has been floated in every conversation about the [City Council] election during the last few months, especially after she came out strongly against the majority of the council, which cut the budget for the assistant to the city manager.

The buzz has grown stronger in the past week, with observers conceding that if [CC M.] Lenzi bows out, the seat is Donoghue’s to take. (my emphasis).

This “observer” does not believe that Eileen’s decision to be a candidate or successful candidacy is impacted by the decisions of other candidates. Let’s look at the numbers:

During the 2007 Congressional Primary Election, 10,482 votes were cast in Lowell. That includes both Democratic and Republican ballots; Eileen received 52% of those votes.

In the 2005 City Council, her last municipal election, she received 7,195 votes. So how many of those who voted for the other Congressional candidates in 2007 would give her one of their 9 votes in a 2009 City Council race? My conservative estimate is at least an additional 1,087.

This is the unscientific method I used to derive at the number, 1,087. I took 25% of the Eldridge (240); Tsongas (2,899) and Republican (1,220) votes. I did not use any of the Miceli (203) or Finegold (513) votes. By the way, Eileen carried 31 of the 33 City wards in 2007. So, if these same 10,257 people who voted in 2007 vote in this year City Council race, she would get at least 6,526 votes.

I also did not like the implication that if all incumbents are running, than there are no open “seats.” There is a distinct advantage to being an incumbent, I do not deny or dispute that fact. But if we continue to think this way, at some point we will only have elections when there are open seats. As it is, it is very rare that the State Reps and State Senators have challengers; it is even worse in Congressional elections, let’s not also handicap our municipal election.