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January 20, 2010

No Red Tital Wave…Sorry

by at 11:34 pm.

Dick Howe (and his son in comments) have some numbers. Looking town by town (so far), the MA Republicans didn’t really increase (very much - in the range of 3-4%) their voter turnout. So what this means is, they were able to capitalize on Dems staying home. Hardly a Big Red Angry Wave.

If this analysis holds true statewide (and the sampling was pretty wide in Dick’s post and comments), this means a couple of things…first, the Republicans still have a ceiling, and it’s about the same ceiling they had in 08, and given a few numbers Andrew threw out on Facebook as well, not a great deal more than Romney in ‘02 either.

Second is that the big danger for state Dems is not keeping up the enthusiasm of your own people (D’s and D-leaners), which holds some cause for nervousness…but also shows us a path to consistent Democratic victory should we put the work in and run great candidates.

So, get involved and find great candidates!

10 Responses to “No Red Tital Wave…Sorry”

  1. Kami Says:

    What’s a tital wave? Is it anything like a tiDal wave?

    Keep telling yourself this has no meaning. Eventually you might believe it. Mass voters were always willing to take a look at a Republican candidate if he/she was the right candidate. In this case he was.

    We’ve voted forRepublican Governor’s in the past so it’s not all that crazy. And now that we appear to be over our dysfunctional relationship with the Kennedy family we are free to do as we wish. It’s like when you realize you’re completely over a bad relationship. It’s simply liberating.

  2. nextyearishere Says:

    That “ceiling” is a little like comparing apples and oranges, a special election in January to the Presidential election in November. But, with the loss in the order of 100K votes, a strong Democrat turnout could have swung the election. It may be better to lose now and learn some lessons from it, rather than be complacent into November and lose a lot more.

  3. Eleanor Rigby Says:

    I have not crunched the numbers yet and while I agree there was not massive increase in Republican turnout, what Brown did do is appeal to the Unenrolled…aka Independent voter.

    Unenrolled voters make up a majority of voters in the state and have the biggest clout when they are pissed.

    Brown was able to get his message to the unenrolled voter and Coakley thought the seat was hers after the primary.

    Not very hard here. Brown worked his tail off and got his message out, Coakley did not.

    Democrats now have 2 years to wake up because the Kennedy seat is up for re-election in 2012.

  4. Lynne Says:

    nextyear: this to me is the silver lining. It sure as hell got ME more motivated!

  5. Gerry Nutter Says:

    This election was so far and away different from past elections because it was in January on a Snowy cold Day and yet over 2 million people for whatever reason exercised their right to vote.

    I looked at the numbers from the last Special Election and the only thing you can positively say is this Senate race had more people interested and voting then the race to replace Marty Meehen.

    Lowell this year: Coakley 9,537 In 2007: Tsongas 7,305
    Brown 10,548 Ogonowski 5,473

    Lawrence this year: Coakley: 6,449 In 2007: Tsongas 4,000
    Brown 3,331 Ogonowski 1,575

    Dracut this year: Coakley 3,166 In 2007: Tsongas 2,314
    Brown 7,658 Ogonowski 4,665

    So play with whatever numbers you would like but the bottom line is that for whatever reason people cared, they voted and it is up to all candidates in the future no matter what seat in what race for which party they represent, they need to make people care enough in their message to turn out the vote.

  6. Greg Page Says:

    ..And to Lynne and nextyear, that sort of tempers the optimism for Republican candidates on the ballot this fall who are reading into Tuesday night’s result. If the theory is that the Dems were asleep at the switch, that was all the wake-up call needed. The complacency pendulum could swing back, so to speak..

  7. Lynne Says:

    Complacency pendulum, lol, I like that.

  8. D in 10 Says:

    You folks are whistling past the graveyard.
    Coakley was the canary in the mineshaft.

  9. Gordon Pickguard Says:

    If Martha was the canary in the mine, she was in respiratory distress before she went in. She was a poor canidate from the get go. If Brown goes along with the right wing,obstructionist wack jobs in DC,or even allows that perception,he should rent, not buy.

  10. Eleanor Rigby Says:

    I know this is about to be lost to another page, but let me just make this prediction.

    If you are among those that think the Scott Brown victory had to do with a combination of factors, one of which was big money coming in at the last minute to flood the airwaves…just wait til the 2010 Congressional races now that corporations have been let loose by the Supreme Court!

    You think major pharma and insurance companies (and others) are going to stand by and allow reform to happen in DC? No Way in Hell!

    They will have congressmen and women bought and paid for at the expense of democracy and the average voter!

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