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September 25, 2012

How Brown Will Lose

by at 4:25 pm.

Map graphics come from the Boston Globe. URLs are provided.

This one is from 2008 and shows Obama leaving McCain in his dust. The thing to remember about this election is it had the highest Lowell turnout (31,905) since 1992 (32,984).

MA2008
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/election_results/ma_president/


Now, let’s skip ahead to the last general election, 2010. We know Deval Patrick won, but the map is very red. Which means, the small towns may vote Republican, but they don’t add up to enough votes to beat out the more populated, Dem heavy, areas. Since winning the election is based on the statewide popular vote, big cities loom large.

Photobucket
http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2010/governor/results/

Now I’m going to fall back to January 2010, when Scott Brown won the “Special Election.” I used a different type of map. This one shows voter intensity by the size of a colored bubble. Here you see how Brown did well geographically, like Baker did later that year, but Brown managed a win by 110,000 votes. (h/t to Brown)

Photobucket
http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2010/senate/results.html

This graph gives you numbers for Lowell & statewide:

CompareforDemStrength

Looking at the numbers, you see that Brown dipped into Dems and Unenrolleds better than McCain. Brown pulled in about 64,000 more votes, even though roughly 800,000 less voters turned out. That’s good, but not fantastic.

Like I said before, 2008 was a huge turnout. Likely, Obama will not be able to stoke the flames of voters like he did the first time. What does that mean for Brown? In January of 2010, when it was all on the line, Brown/Coakley pulled out 2.25 million voters. Massachusetts, looking at 2004, 2000 and the last Lowell “highwater mark” 1992, creates an expectation of about 2.8 million voters for 2012. That’s about 550,000 more voters turning out in a heavily Dem state, where Romney is polling like shit: Obama 56%, Romney 35%. This is the latest poll, but many others if not all, show this trend.
Statewide vote totals for 2004: 2,912,388
Statewide vote totals for 2000: 2,702,984
Statewide vote totals for 1992: 2,773,574

Lowell presidential election turnout is plotted here, going back 30 years. It hasn’t dropped below 27,000.

30yearsLowellPrezElections

This all adds up to Brown getting smoked!

Lowell will turnout 6,000 more voters than it did in the 2010 Special Election. The surge from Special Election to General Election will boost turnout by 550,000 across the Bay State. In a state the trends Democrat, can’t stand the Republican ex-Gov trying to run for POTUS, and has large urban areas with strong activist ground games (thank you Mayor Menino); Scott Brown loses by 5-7 points.

If you really think Brown’s gonna win; I got a brand new bridge to sell you, just North of the UMassLowell Boathouse, built by the crew that fixed the Hunts Falls Bridge & Tyngsboro Bridge.

6 Responses to “How Brown Will Lose”

  1. Joe S. Says:

    I think Brown made a strategic mistake in the opening of the last debate, and he has doubled and tripled down on that path in the meantime. As you may say, he has woken the sleeping giant of the Democratic Party machine.

  2. Mr. Lynne Says:

    Remember, the 2010 class knew ‘what this election is about’ and they were going to ‘focus like a laser’ on jobs - so naturally we get the war on women instead.

    Now Brown knows exactly what this election ‘is about’ - quotas, obviously.

  3. joe from Lowell Says:

    This mud-slinging from the Brown campaign is a Hail Mary. It wasn’t a mistake: he was absolutely going to lose if he didn’t go sharply negative. He’s probably going to lose anyway - the attacks are not catching him up, and they will probably end up doing him more harm than good - but he had to throw a Hail Mary. He had to do something, even if it probably wouldn’t work. Otherwise, he’d have spent the rest of the campaign trying to make his margin of defeat a little smaller.

  4. Jack Says:

    Going to this extreme, Brown either:
    - Thinks he can win this, if he goes scorched earth
    - Has a job waiting for him

    That said, it will be tough for Brown to run for anything in the near term, if he flames the electorate with crapola.

    Could he run for Governor in 2014, if he burns what little credibility he has?

  5. Lynne Says:

    http://boston.com/community/blogs/less_is_more/2012/09/browns_attacks_on_warrens_alle.html

  6. Lynne Says:

    Joe from Lowell - RE the hail mary… unfortunately the scab refs aren’t judging the race. ;)

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