Member of the reality-based community of progressive (not anonymous) Massachusetts blogs
Lay it out there, folks.
You can make your own scenario using the NY Times map, here.
As for the Warren-Brown race, I have already shown you why/how Scott Brown will get smoked, especially here in Lowell.
But let me reshow this data.
This graph gives you numbers for Lowell & statewide for the relevant elections:
Lowell presidential election turnout is plotted here, going back 30 years. It hasn’t dropped below 27,000.
So for Lowell, I’ll predict a voter turnout of 29,000 with Brown pulling no more than 12,000. That means that Warren wins Lowell 59% to Brown’s 41%. Of course, there are always blanks and write-ins, so that will jigger the numbers a tad.
State wide is tricker. I’ll say tournout is 2.9 million, with 650,000 voters engaged that did not when Brown won the special election on Jan.2010. I could split the extra turnout 65% Warren, 35% Brown based on voter demographics and Nov.2010 trends.
BUT, Brown has been very negative in his ads, which Bay Staters tend to dislike. Ask Muffy. That, and the fact the Brown has NO GROUNDGAME, in the GOTV period of the campaign, means a 2% split in the final outcome will be more like 4%.
So, I predict Warren winning, 52% to Brown’s 48%. (This is me being conservative. It could be a 6 point spread because Brown is such a horrible campaigner.)
No matter what, above all else. Vote! And, encourage everyone you know to vote. Let democracy render what it will.
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