Shameless Chicken Counting
Lay it out there, folks.
I say:
You can make your own scenario using the NY Times map, here.
As for the Warren-Brown race, I have already shown you why/how Scott Brown will get smoked, especially here in Lowell.
But let me reshow this data.
This graph gives you numbers for Lowell & statewide for the relevant elections:
Lowell presidential election turnout is plotted here, going back 30 years. It hasn’t dropped below 27,000.
So for Lowell, I’ll predict a voter turnout of 29,000 with Brown pulling no more than 12,000. That means that Warren wins Lowell 59% to Brown’s 41%. Of course, there are always blanks and write-ins, so that will jigger the numbers a tad.
State wide is tricker. I’ll say tournout is 2.9 million, with 650,000 voters engaged that did not when Brown won the special election on Jan.2010. I could split the extra turnout 65% Warren, 35% Brown based on voter demographics and Nov.2010 trends.
BUT, Brown has been very negative in his ads, which Bay Staters tend to dislike. Ask Muffy. That, and the fact the Brown has NO GROUNDGAME, in the GOTV period of the campaign, means a 2% split in the final outcome will be more like 4%.
So, I predict Warren winning, 52% to Brown’s 48%. (This is me being conservative. It could be a 6 point spread because Brown is such a horrible campaigner.)
No matter what, above all else. Vote! And, encourage everyone you know to vote. Let democracy render what it will.
November 5th, 2012 at 7:33 pm
I think you are being slightly optimistic on both races. Obama will win but not with 300 plus. Brown will win Lowell (whose idea was it to put an unpopular mayor out front for Warren?) and he may eek out a win statewide. They’ll be coming out of the hills to vote for him. The days of straight party voting in Massachusetts are over. I’d like to see the numbers of newly registered voters (within the last 5 years), how many have registered as Democrats and how many are unenrolled.
November 5th, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Florida was watching Hurricane Sandy. Do you want the man who Chris Christie said couldn’t be better, or do you want the guy who wants to eliminate FEMA? I’ll see your 303 and raise you one Florida.
November 5th, 2012 at 9:46 pm
No matter what happens, the mistake I made the last time around in voting for Murphy will never happen again. This first time Rita Mercier voter will have her sign in my yard and a donation as well.
Pablo: Christie has been very clear he wants Romney to win. Appreciate the endorsement!
November 6th, 2012 at 5:45 am
Actually, Christie has his sights set on the White House in 2016; much easier if Romney doesn’t win this year.
November 6th, 2012 at 12:37 pm
I think you’re being optimistic, PC, IMHO. I think Warren wins Lowell. Handily. Sorry, but the average voter is not enthused for Brown. Even Brown supporters aren’t gung-ho. Warren supporters are far more enthused. Higher turnout favors Warren…and from what I’ve seen today…it’s been insane. I spent the morning at the Pyne, there was almost never a lull.
Robby, if you didn’t know Patrick Murphy was a very liberal independent already, you were *NOT* paying attention.
November 6th, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Lynne - don’t get me wrong. Can’t stand Brown. I even sent $$ to Warren (first time donor). I just don’t get the feeling that she appeals to the “Reagan Democrats” that vote in Lowell. We’ll see, I hope I’m wrong.
November 6th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
I think you will be.
November 6th, 2012 at 5:12 pm
If you are willing to classify the Libertarian vote as right of center, the right of center vote in Lowell has been remarkably stable over the past few state elections.
For example , in 2002, Romney/Healey plus the Libertarian came to 10,339 on turnout of 21,584; in 2004 with 29,232 participating , Bush/Cheney and the Libertarian received 10,723;31,905 took part in 2008 and the Republican , Libertarian and Constitution Parties combined for 10,593{ I am omiiting 2010 because I think it is hard to categorize the Cahill vote}.
Were Senator Brown to carry Lowell today , I do not think you can attribute that to a conservative vote that emerges after a decade or more of dormancy.Something else would have gone wrong with the Warren Campaign.